On the 7th anniversary of 9/11, insurgents move to border

Muhammad Tahir

Dubai (September 11, 2008)- Immediately following the tragic events of 9/11 US President George W. Bush made clear his intentions to smoke out Osama Bin Laden from his cave and bring him to justice.

Seven years after those incidents, despite the presence of around 70 000 western troops in Afghanistan, figure heads behind the attacks on the Twin Towers in New York and the Pentagon in Washington remain out of reach for the Bush administration. The war on terror, led by US forces in Afghanistan and Iraq, now may be involved in another military crisis with tribal areas of Pakistan now looming as the next likely battle zone.

Following years of an international military campaign against Al Qaida, the terrorist organisation continues to actively communicate with their followers around the world while engaging in unrelenting attacks against the west and its allies.

Today alongside Al Qaida, there are several Taliban and minor groups, positioned on both sides of the border of Pakistan and Afghanistan, one of them is Tahreek-I-Taliban Pakistan, whom Pakistani officials recently banned, calling them an extension of Al Qaida in the region.

 Pakistan at war    

After 9/11, attacks against the Taliban in Afghanistan forced the group into the lawless tribal region of Pakistan, eventually transforming it into a safe haven for the Taliban and Al Qaida operatives allowing them to operate freely. Almost after seven years, today, that region is almost a no-go-zone and poses serious threat not only against the stability in Afghanistan but also to Pakistan and the region at large.

In the last month alone almost 500 people were killed in military operations against the insurgents in the tribal region of Pakistan and over 300,000 people were internally displaced.

On the other side the Taliban also increased their violent activities in the country attacking government installations, security forces as well as infrastructure causing high human casualties.   

During the last several years, Pakistan has been engaged with the Taliban making efforts to find peaceful solutions, which included signing a peace accord, financial recompense for their casualties, as well as withdrawing Pakistani forces from some locations.

While it gave the militants strength to negotiate with the government, these efforts have been somewhat fruitless, as today Islamabad is unable to control the area with 170,000 strong forces being deployed alongside the Afghan border. The country is practically at war with the insurgents, leading western analysts to claim that the real front is Pakistan and not Iraq or Afghanistan.

 War on Afghan front     

On other side of the border in Afghanistan, which only 5 years ago had been considered a success story, today reflects a grim picture with insurgencies increasing day by day.

Almost after seven years in power, the central government in Kabul remains ineffective with the country unofficially divided in many parts raising serious questions about the future stability of Afghanistan.

Alongside this deteriorating situation, unemployment is high, economy is poor, development activities are marginal, infrastructure is disorganized, authorities are corrupt, while poppy cultivation is at an all time high (currently providing 90% of the world’s illegal heroin) leading some experts to say, that the country is at the door step of becoming a Norco-economy and failed state.

   The only real achievement has been freedom of the press, which is now also increasingly under threat from not only the Taliban and Al Qaida elements but also from radicals with the government. 

The war which aimed to bring peace to the region has made little progress in 7 years with no side satisfied with the results as the death toll continues to mount.

According to Human Rights Watch, in 2007 around 950 civilians were killed in attacks orchestrated by the insurgents and 321 civilians died by the military operations conducted by the foreign troops in the country.

While these are the officially reported figures, the number of unreported cases could be in the hundreds, if not thousands, while thousands of insurgents have been reportedly killed during the same period.

For many years, Afghanistan blamed Pakistan for turning a blind eye on activities of the Taliban and Al Qaida operatives in the tribal region of Pakistan, whom Kabul claimed were responsible for the majority of attacks in Afghanistan, which Pakistan rejects.

 Joint action

Despite denials by Pakistan, the recent wave of insurgency in the country has proved the seriousness of the situation, which requires tough and urgent measures, not only by Pakistan but Afghanistan and coalition forces deployed there. 

In comparison to seven years earlier, when the Taliban was a single entity, today their numbers and locations are unknown posing more serious risk to the region, not to mention Pakistan would be the first victim should the current security situation further deteriorate. 

Previously due to deep-sided mistrust between the Pakistani and Afghan leadership, both neighbours weren’t able to unite against this threat but today new leadership in Pakistan offers greater opportunity for cooperation.

It seems both countries are finally realizing the crucial need for joint action as demonstrated by the Afghan President’s presence at Asif Ali Zadari’s swearing in ceremony as the new President of Pakistan on September 9.

Coincidence or not, Mr. Zardari’s decision to appear with President Karzai so soon after he officially became President carry heavy weight in terms of the future direction of the Pakistani government.

   At the same time in Washington, President Bush declared he would be increasing the number of troops in Afghanistan while also emphasising the need for greater developmental activity in the country. 
   This was the announcement Afghan leaders as well as the commanders of foreign troops in Afghanistan had been demanding for many years, although still short of what is required. To turn around the dismal outcomes of the past 7 years, besides a stronger military, safety and security, economic development is vital in providing the turning point to stop people joining the militants.

Source- Daily Gulf News – UAE