The Aral Sea: a disaster knocking on the door

Increasing concerns over the Aral Sea’s environmental impact on Central Asia continue to make headlines in international reports and surveys. The United Nations Development Program’s (UNDP) recent report on Human Development [published on 7th December 2005] once more highlighted this issue as a matter of concern.
According to the UNDP’s report 2005, the Aral Sea, once considered one of the world’s largest inland lakes, is now not only losing this position but is also turning into a disaster zone for surrounding regions, affecting Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and now Turkmenistan. The Sea has increasingly become a dead body of water, leaving behind a harmful layer of chemicals, pesticides and natural salts blown by the wind into noxious dust storms. This not only raises tremendous health risks, but also creates huge economic problems for the region. According to statistics published on Aral Sea’s homepage, roughly 60% of the basin’s population has been affected in different ways: irrigated agriculture in the deltas suffer from a limited water supply because of greatly reduced river flow, which in turn reduces employment opportunities and forces people to immigrate while the health of those left behind declines dramatically. Due to a lack of international and regional interest, little has so far been achieved by organizations struggling to cope with these problems.
Many experts find it hard to predict a bright future for the region, since countries such as Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan continue to increase the area of farmland irrigated by Amu Darya [River] the crucial source of water for the Aral Sea.
The ongoing Golden Century Lake project in Karakum desert of Turkmenistan is raising more concern. Not only in terms of the loss more Aral Sea water but also in terms of the environmental impact a region already suffering.
According to UNDP’s report on Human Development [2005] this US$9 billion Turkmen initiative, which was started on 20 October 2000, was begun with out even consulting regional powers. This depression covers 3,500 to 4,000 square kilometers and has a maximum depth of 70 to 100 meters. Once completed the lake will contain some 132 to 150 cubic kilometers of water. Although a semi official news source of Turkmenistan -- ‘Turkmenistan.ru -- quoting Turkmen officials in its May 24 2005 publication, said that this scheme will guarantee water and security and will create some 4,000 square kilometers of farmland. But scientists fear that this large-scale project will wreck the already fragile ecosystem and the water will simply evaporate in the desert creating another situation like that of the Aral Sea. Besides the possible environmental impact there is also a possibility of conflict on upstream and downstream water rights to Amu Darya. Uzbekistan possibly would be the first victim of the project since water will be drained from Amu Darya to maintain the level in the lake.
Due to economic problems in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries, in the early days of their independence little progress was seen in coping with issues such as the Aral Sea and other environmental problems. In March 1993 however, heads of the regional states established the Interstate Council for the Aral Sea basin, the ‘International Fund for Aral Sea salvation’ and the ‘Intergovernmental Sustainable Development Commission’.
According to Time of Central Asia’s February 18 2005 edition ‘At the beginning these institutions seemed to play an important role not only in attempting to save the Aral Sea but they also made progress in coordinating other regional environmental and water initiatives. But with the passage of time neither the effort of the NGO’s nor intergovernmental moves seem sufficient to cope with the challenges of the day.
If the fact that has been telecast by the Afghan satellite Tv Ayna [quoting Afghan Agriculture Ministry official on it’s August 27 2005 news edition] taken into account Afghanistan’s new long-term agriculture project called Kohi-Ghashang ‘Good Hill’ seems to be one of the most important challenges to the future of water resources in the region. If this project is realized, Afghanistan will increase its irrigated area of land from 500,000 hectares to more than 1.5 million hectares. This will mean current water usage in Afghanistan will increase from 1 billion cubic meters to up to 10 billion cubic meters from the Amu Darya which carries a total 11.6 billion cubic meter water. According to an international agreement signed in 1946 between the Soviet Union and Afghanistan, Kabul already has the right to withdraw 9 billion cubic meters of water.
The 1,415-kilometer long Amu Darya has the highest water bearing capacity of the region, and it originates from Panj Darya in Afghanistan, around 12.5 % of the Aral Sea flows from Afghanistan. The Amu Darya continues along nearly the entire border between Tajikistan and Afghanistan, and later also forms the border between Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
Lack of cooperation and coordination on water management issues continues to create unprecedented potential risks for the future of the region. According to regional experts, the efforts to save the Aral Sea look even more difficult since Tajikistan started to build 2 hydro-power stations. The running of these stations will rely on water from Amu Darya or from canals that feed into the river. According to the World Bank [annual report 2004], Tajikistan is actively pursuing the completion of these two hydropower schemes initiated during the Soviet period to reduce the country’s energy dependence on Uzbekistan. A less contentious option, Sangtuda 1 & 2 involves two schemes [670 MW and 220 MW] at an increased cost of US$ 560 million. These are expected to start working in early 2009.
If a second project under development in Tajikistan -- the Rogun Dam -- is realized, it will spell disaster not only for the Aral Sea, but to the agricultural sector of the entire region as it gives full control of Amu Darya to Tajikistan. Russian companies are involved in this US$ 2.5 billion project. This is a 3,600 MW storage scheme that could start producing electricity in 2014. If this dream comes true, Tajikistan will be able to sell its electricity to Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan. This plant was begun in 1980s, but the project was stopped when the Tajik civil war began. Then a massive flood in 1993 destroyed most of what had already been built. Today despite controversy and the strong opposition of Uzbekistan, the Tajik government seems set to continue to this project, as it will be an important source of income for this landlocked country.
But the impact of such projects will be unprecedented. According to a report of the World Bank [2004], the Aral Sea has been shrinking rapidly: between 1960 and 1990 it retreated to about half its size [from 66,900 to 36 500 square kilometers], and its volume dropped by two-thirds [from 1,090 to 310 cubic meters]. By the end of the 1990’s this Sea had reportedly lost 90% of its volume. The salt content in the water also increased 2-3 times.
As a result of the lack of comprehensive and effective coordination, cooperation and water management strategy among regional countries, and lack of International efforts and funding, this desiccation of the sea has had far-reaching consequences for the climate and biodiversity of the surrounding region. Desert winds transport sand and salt long distances, depositing millions of tons of [often polluted] salts on agricultural fields all over the basin area, and reportedly endangering the glaciers of faraway mountain ranges. The worsening ecology of the region makes living conditions in previously heavily populated areas quite inhospitable, so it forces the active population to immigrate and increases the health risk to those who are left behind.

Source:"Central Asia and Caucasus Analyst"